инновационное развитие и активность,
тренд,
ранговый анализ,
прогноз,
адаптационная,
инерционная модель,
инвестиции,
Парето-концентрация,
технологии
Abstract
Introduction. Contemporary trends in Russia's innovative development are determined by the necessity of adapting to systemic challenges and sanction restrictions. Internal imbalances and a weak correlation between investment and performance results in the regions necessitate the search for new management models. This work explores the specifics of innovative activity in the Volgograd Region under conditions of stringent resource constraints and the objective of ensuring the country's technological sovereignty. Methods. The methodological toolkit is based on a systems approach, statistical methods, and rank analysis using Rosstat data. A comparative interregional analysis of indicators from the Volgograd Region and comparable leading regions was applied. The study of dynamic series from 2014 to 2024 included the construction of linear trends, dynamic indices, and the use of Pareto analysis elements to assess resource concentration. The statistical toolkit ensured the objective verification of hypotheses concerning the nature of the regional innovation system's development amidst mounting external sanctions and other influencing factors. Analysis. The research design is based on a comparative analysis of the dynamics of innovation activity indicators in the Volgograd Region versus other subjects of the Southern Federal District. The main body of the work focuses on the quantitative identification of correlations between the volume of innovative output, the scale of fixed capital investment, and the level of innovation activity among organizations. The author analyzes structural changes in the regional innovation system over a ten-year period. The study examines the phenomenon of maintaining positive trends in innovative output and innovation activity levels despite a decline in the proportion of organizations engaged in technological innovation. Results. An adaptive inertia model of development for the Volgograd Region has been identified. It is substantiated that growth in the volume of innovative goods is primarily achieved through organizational and marketing innovations, without the expanded reproduction of a new technological base. The conclusion is drawn that the current model ensures short-term performance but creates risks of «technological stagnation.» A transformation of investment policy is required to facilitate a transition toward a qualitative renewal of the region's technological foundation.
