экономический рост,
земельно-ресурсный потенциал,
управление земельными ресурсами,
деградация земель,
логико-вероятностные модели риска,
вероятности наступления неблагоприятных событий,
выпуск сельскохозяйственной продукции
Abstract
Introduction. The country's socioeconomic development continues to lag behind global average growth rates, largely due to the underestimation of land resource potential and ineffective land management. To analyze risks and assess the magnitude of losses from inefficient land use, it is advisable to apply a logical-probabilistic approach. This approach allows us to identify the main factors causing the decline in agricultural production, determine the most significant measures to mitigate their adverse impact, and identify reserves for economic growth. Research Materials and Methods. Modern logical-probabilistic risk models can be adapted to analyze the impact of various risks on economic development, the efficient use of land resource potential, and agricultural output. Identifying the main types of risks arising from land resource management, determining the probability of their occurrence, and the expected percentage of loss of profitability makes it possible to forecast the dynamics of agricultural development indicators and build effective land use models. Analysis. High rates of economic growth in the country have not been achieved over the past 25 years. Land use has largely been conducted without regard for environmentally acceptable standards, creating a real threat of land degradation and a general decline in agricultural productivity. This necessitated the development of a land doctrine that would ensure the transformation of the entire land management system to preserve soil fertility and increase the country's land resource potential. Results. The transition to a sustainable land management system will enable the annual production of additional high-quality produce and ensure an 8.8 % increase in the economic performance of the agricultural sector, while the average annual economic growth rate will increase by 0.32 %. By increasing the role of the agricultural sector in the national economy, thanks to effective management of land resource potential, the country's national output growth rate could increase by more than one percent.
